Defence secretary dismisses poll, saying things will change by time general election takes place
Anthony Wells, head of European political and social research at YouGov, says the claim that, without Reform UK on the ballot paper, Labour would fail to win a majority (see 9.56am) comes from the Daily Telegraph, not YouGov. He thinks it’s wrong. And he has explained why in a thread on X.
I see a lot of people have twigged and already flagged this, but just for the avoidance of doubt. The MRP in the Telegraph today is YouGov’s, but the claim that it’s all because of Reform and it would be a hung Parliament without them is the Telegraph’s own claim.
As far I can tell, it’s the Telegraph running the sums on what you’d get if you add the Conservative & Reform party votes together, which isn’t a very good way of measuring their impact.
If the Reform party disappeared tomorrow, then it’s likely some of their voters would go to the Tories. But some of their voters would also go to UKIP & splinter parties, some to Labour & other parties, and some would stay at home.
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