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Baby Reindeer to Rivals: who will win the TV Baftas … and who should?

The biggest night in telly is back. So will Richard Gadd’s stalker drama come up trumps? Will Katherine Parkinson triumph for her turn in Rivals? And will Ruth Jones finally get a gong for Gavin & Stacey?

Rarely has a Bafta TV awards ceremony taken place against such a background of industry anxiety: plummeting terrestrial ratings, aggressive streamer competition, a precipitous drop in UK production. Even sponsors P&O Cruises will rarely have seen such troublesome seas.

Bafta voters (I am one, but don’t know any final results) will also have brought other external concerns. Jurors may worry that Mr Bates vs the Post Office (premiered January 2024) now feels too old, which could count against Monica Dolan and Toby Jones in the acting categories. (Because of calendar year qualification, Adolescence may have the same problem in 2026.) Also, older voters can be reluctant to see pushy rich streamers thriving: they’ve just about come to terms with Netflix but Disney+ and Apple TV+, who have a strong shortlist presence, may, for some, be the future too far. Here are my preferences and predictions.

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