Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
- Latest: UK shrank 9.9% last year – “worst on record”
- But economy avoids double-dip recession with 1% growth in Q4
- Introduction: UK GDP report due today
- BoE chief economist: economy is a coiled spring
Economic research institute NIESR predicts the UK will suffer a ‘sharp decline in activity’ in the first three months of this year – until the Covid-19 vaccination programme spurs a recovery:
According to today’s ONS figures, UK #GDP contracted by 9.9% in 2020, which is likely to be the largest annual fall among G7 countries last year. Economic #growth slowed significantly, dropping from 16.1% in the 3rd quarter to 1% in the last quarter of the year. As a result,
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the level of GDP in the UK remained about 8% below pre-pandemic levels even before a third #lockdown became necessary in January 2021. With #COVID19 restrictions expected to remain elevated until early spring, we anticipate a sharp decline in activity during the first…
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quarter of the year. Nevertheless, #growth will pick up from the second quarter onwards as #restrictions ease on the back of a successful #vaccination programme
Our #NIESRGDP Tracker analysis will be out shortly – Watch this page ⚡️
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Here’s Reuters’ take:
Last year’s fall in output was the biggest since modern official records began after World War Two, and longer-running historical data hosted by the Bank of England suggest it was the biggest drop since 1709.
The fall is also steeper than almost any other big economy, though Spain – also hard-hit by the virus – suffered an 11% decline.
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